Information about Futurology

Futurology is the detailed critical inspection and reasoning of the state in which things will develop in the future on the basis of existing circumstances in history. ^[1] The term literally means the "study of the future".^[2] The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim^[3] in the mid-1940's, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of probability.

Description

Main article: Futures studies

Futurology basics Two factors usually distinguish the studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all disciplines overlap, to differing degrees): Futurology often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and wildcard futures Futurology typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines.

In a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the timeline that has yet to occur, i.e. the place in space-time where lie all events that still have not occurred. In this sense the future is opposed to the past (the set of moments and events that have already occurred) and the present (the set of events that are occurring now). Futurists are those who look to and provide analysis of the future. The discipline is referred to by different terms, depending on the cultural context. Such names include foresight, futurism, prospective and futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of the important 20th century foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in Latin America). Futures studies has become the common term in the English-speaking world.

Futurologists attempt to apply Strategic Foresight for forecasting alternative futures. While forecasting -- i.e., attempts to predict future states from current trends -- is a common methodology, professional scenarios often rely on "backcasting" -- i.e., asking what changes in the present would be required to arrive at envisioned alternative future states. For example, the Policy Reform and Eco-Communalism scenarios developed by the Global Scenario Group rely on the backcasting method. Practitioners of futures studies classify themselves as futurists (or foresight practitioners).

The modern multi-disciplinary and cross-cultural discipline of futurology, known more generally as futures studies, emerged in the mid-1960's, according to first-generation futurists Olaf Helmer, Bertrand de Jouvenel, Dennis Gabor, Oliver Markley, Burt Nanus, and Wendell Bell.^[4] Futures studies reflects on how today’s changes (or the lack thereof) become tomorrow’s reality. It includes attempts to analyze the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in order to develop foresight and to map alternative futures. The subjects and methods of futures studies include possible, probable, and desirable variations or alternative transformations of the present, both social and “natural” (i.e. independent of human impact). A broad field of inquiry, futures studies explores and represents what the present could become from multiple interdisciplinary perspectives. As a discipline it is still early in conceptual and methodological development, grounding, and validation. The Limits to Growth by Dennis Meadows is a good place to start. It is widely used by corporations, as a discipline to challenge strategies composed for long term growth. Education in the field of Futurology has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States of America in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Futures education can encourage the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively.

Futures techniques

Main article: Futures techniques

Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting methods including:

Futurists and foresight leaders

Methodologies

Main article: Futures_studies' methodologies

Practitioners of the discipline previously concentrated on extrapolating present technological, economic or social trends, or on attempting to predict future trends, but more recently they have started to examine social systems and uncertainties and to build scenarios. Apart from extrapolation and scenarios, many dozens of methods and techniques have uses in futures research.

Several authors have become recognized as futurists. They research trends (particularly in technology) and write accounts of their observations, conclusions, and predictions. Some futurists share features in common with the writers of science fiction, and indeed some science-fiction writers, such as Arthur C. Clarke, have acquired a certain reputation as futurists. Some writers, though, show less interest in technological or social developments and use the future only as a backdrop to their stories. For example, in the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula K. Le Guin wrote of prediction as the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists, not of writers: "a novelist's business is lying".

Practitioners

See also

General:Biotechnologies, Cybernation, Collective intelligence, Hudson Institute

Further reading

Listed by date

• Bindé, J. (2001). Keys to the 21st century. New York: Berghahn Books.
• Welfare, S. (1989). New connexions. Harmondsworth: Penguin ELT.
• Shakhnazarov, G. K. (1982). Futurology fiasco: a critical study of non-Marxist concepts of how society develops. Moscow: Progress Publishers.
• Thompson, A. E. (1979). Understanding futurology: an introduction to futures study. Newton Abbot [Eng.]: David & Charles.
• Ferkiss, V. C. (1977). Futurology: promise, performance, prospects. A Sage policy paper. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
• Hostrop, R. W. (1973). Foundations of futurology in education. [Homewood, Ill: ETC Publications].
• Flechtheim, O. K. (1966). History and futurology. Meisenheim am Glan: Hain.

References

Citations and notes