Policy Analysis Market

Information about Policy Analysis Market

The Policy Analysis Market (PAM), part of the FutureMAP project, was a proposed futures exchange developed by the United States' Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and based on an idea first proposed by Net Exchange[1], a San Diego research firm specializing in the development of online prediction markets.

PAM was to be a "a market in the future of the Middle East", and would have allowed trading of futures contracts based on possible political developments in several Middle Eastern countries. The theory behind such a market is that the monetary value of a futures contract on an event reflects the probability that that event will actually occur, since a market's actors rationally bid a contract either up or down based on reliable information. One of the models for PAM was a political futures market run by the University of Iowa, which has allegedly proven more accurate in predicting the outcomes of U.S. elections than either opinion polls or political pundits. PAM was also inspired by the work of George Mason University economist Robin Hanson.

At a July 28, 2003 press conference, Senators Byron L. Dorgan (D-ND) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) claimed that PAM would allow trading in such events as coups d'Ã©tat, assassinations, and terrorist attacks, due to such events appearing on interface pictures on the project website. They denounced the idea, with Wyden stating, "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," while Dorgan called it "useless, offensive and unbelievably stupid". [2] Other critics offered similar outrage. Almost immediately afterwards (within less than a day) the Pentagon announced the cancellation of PAM, and by the end of the week John Poindexter, head of the DARPA unit responsible for developing it, had offered his resignation.

CNN reported the program would be relaunched by the private firm, Net Exchange, which helped create it, but that the newer version "will not include any securities based on forecasts of violent events such as assassinations or terror attacks". ^[1] On June 11, 2007, Popular Science launched a similar program, known as the Popsci Predictions Exchange.

There are now commercial policy analysis markets, such as InTrade, which offers futures on events such as the capture of Osama bin Laden, the U.S. Presidential Election, and the bombing of Iran.

Notes

1. ^ Middle East futures market returns. Private firm will restart Pentagon project, but without contracts for violence, in 2004.. CNN.com. Retrieved on 2006-07-16.

External links

Policy Analysis Market website

Was policyanalysis.org, no longer present.

Hanson, Robin The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive. Retrieved on 2006-07-16.
The Informed Press Favored the Policy Analysis Market: Research paper by Robin Hanson analyzing press reaction to PAM

You must specify title = and url = when using . Available parameters:

 style="border:none; display:table;">{{cite web
|url = 
|title = 
|accessdate = 
|accessdaymonth = 
|accessmonthday = 
|accessyear = 
|author = 
|last = 
|first = 
|authorlink = 
|coauthors = 
|date = 
|year = 
|month = 
|format = 
|work = 
|publisher = 
|pages = 
|language = 
|doi = 
|archiveurl = 
|archivedate = 
|quote = 
}}

News articles

Congressional record

Congressional Record: July 29, 2003 (Senate): Transcript of the debate on the Senate floor after NY Times wrote an article about PAM.

Blogs

Talent Show: Even More on Terrorist Futures. Contains relevant analytical quotes and clips.

Live Policy Analysis Markets

InTrade

FutureMAP was a DARPA research project into the use of prediction markets for shaping government policy. The Policy Analysis Market was part of this project.
..... Click the link for more information.

The introduction to this article provides insufficient context for those unfamiliar with the subject matter.
Please help [ improve the introduction] to meet Wikipedia's layout standards.

..... Click the link for more information.

Motto
"In God We Trust" (since 1956)
"E Pluribus Unum" ("From Many, One"; Latin, traditional)
Anthem
..... Click the link for more information.

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

Agency overview
Formed 1958

Employees 240
Annual Budget $3.2 billion

Agency Executive Anthony J. Tether, Director

Website
www.darpa.
..... Click the link for more information.

City of San Diego
San Diego Skyline

Flag
Seal
Nickname: America's Finest City
Motto: Semper Vigilans (Latin: Ever Vigilant)
Location of San Diego
within San Diego County
..... Click the link for more information.

Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter).
..... Click the link for more information.

In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract, traded on a futures exchange, to buy or sell a certain underlying instrument at a certain date in the future, at a specified price. The future date is called the delivery date or final settlement date.
..... Click the link for more information.

Middle East is a historical and political region of Africa-Eurasia with no clear boundaries. The term "Middle East" was popularized around 1900 in Britain, and has been criticized for its loose definition.
..... Click the link for more information.

University of Iowa, also commonly called Iowa or U of I, is a major coeducational research university located on a 1,900 acre (8 km)
..... Click the link for more information.

An election is a decision making process where people choose people to hold official offices. This is the usual mechanism by which modern democracy fills offices in the legislature, sometimes in the executive and judiciary, and for regional and local government.
..... Click the link for more information.

An opinion poll is a survey of opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by asking a small number of people a series of questions and then extrapolating the answers to the larger group within confidence intervals.
..... Click the link for more information.

A pundit is, in contemporary English, someone who offers mass-media opinion, analysis or commentary on a particular subject area, (most typically political analysis, the social sciences or sport), on which they are presumed to be knowledgeable.
..... Click the link for more information.

George Mason University, also known as GMU or simply Mason, is a major public university in the United States. It is located in Northern Virginia, with its main campus in Fairfax, Virginia and additional campuses in Arlington and Prince William County--all in the
..... Click the link for more information.

Economics is the social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The term economics comes from the Greek for oikos (house) and nomos (custom or law), hence "rules of the house(hold).
..... Click the link for more information.

Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University. He is known as an expert on idea futures markets and was involved in the creation of the Foresight Exchange and DARPA's FutureMAP project.
..... Click the link for more information.

July 28 is the 1st day of the year (2nd in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar. There are 0 days remaining.

Events

1540 - Thomas Cromwell is executed on order from Henry VIII of England on charges of treason.

..... Click the link for more information.

20th century - 21st century - 22nd century
1970s 1980s 1990s - 2000s - 2010s 2020s 2030s
2000 2001 2002 - 2003 - 2004 2005 2006

2003 by topic:
News by month
Jan - Feb - Mar - Apr - May - Jun
..... Click the link for more information.

should be added to this article, to conform with Wikipedia's Manual of Style.
Please discuss this issue on the talk page.
This article has been tagged since July 2007.
..... Click the link for more information.

United States Senate

Type Upper House

President of the Senate Richard B. Cheney, R
since January 20, 2001
President pro tempore Robert C. Byrd, D
since January 4, 2007

Members 100
Political groups Democratic Party
Republican Party
..... Click the link for more information.

United States of America

This article is part of the series:
Politics and government of
the United States

Federal government
Constitution
Taxation

President Vice President
Cabinet

Congress
Senate
..... Click the link for more information.

State of North Dakota

Flag of North Dakota Seal
Nickname(s): Peace Garden State,
Roughrider State, Flickertail State
Motto(s): Liberty and union, now and forever, one and inseparable;
Strength from the soil
..... Click the link for more information.

Ronald Lee Wyden (born May 3, 1949) is Oregon's senior United States Senator. He is a member of the Democratic Party.

Early career and personal life

Wyden was born in Wichita, Kansas to Edith Rosenow and Peter H.
..... Click the link for more information.

United States of America

This article is part of the series:
Politics and government of
the United States

Federal government
Constitution
Taxation

President Vice President
Cabinet

Congress
Senate
..... Click the link for more information.

State of Oregon

Flag of Oregon (front) Seal
Nickname(s): Beaver State
Motto(s): Alis volat propriis

Official language(s) (none)^[1]

Capital Salem
Largest city Portland

..... Click the link for more information.

coup d'Ã©tat (IPA: [kuːdeɪˈtɑː] or AHD: [ko͞o"dā tÃ¤]), or simply coup, is the sudden overthrow of a government, often through illegal means by a part of the state establishment —
..... Click the link for more information.

AssassiNation
2006

AssassiNation is the sixth album by Krisiun, released in 2006 on Century Media. It is dedicated in memory of Doc and Dimebag Darrell.
..... Click the link for more information.

Terrorism in the modern sense^[1] is violence or other harmful acts committed (or threatened) against civilians for political or other ideological goals.^[2]
..... Click the link for more information.

The Pentagon is the headquarters of the United States Department of Defense, located in Arlington, Virginia. As a symbol of the U.S. military, "the Pentagon" is often used metonymically to refer to the Department of Defense rather than the building itself.
..... Click the link for more information.

John Marlan Poindexter (born August 12, 1936 in Odon, Indiana) is a retired American naval officer and Department of Defense official. He was Deputy National Security Advisor and National Security Advisor for the Reagan administration.
..... Click the link for more information.

Popular Science is an American monthly magazine founded in 1872 carrying articles for the general reader on science and technology subjects. Popular Science is a general interest magazine with a focus on science and technology.
..... Click the link for more information.

This article is copied from an article on Wikipedia.org - the free encyclopedia created and edited by online user community. The text was not checked or edited by anyone on our staff. Although the vast majority of the wikipedia encyclopedia articles provide accurate and timely information please do not assume the accuracy of any particular article. This article is distributed under the terms of GNU Free Documentation License.

Herod_Archelaus

iPedia Free Information Center